The AI Aperture of Certainty When it Comes to Predicting the Attainment of AGI

Experts increasingly believe there's an "aperture of certainty" around predicting artificial general intelligence (AGI) - the idea that our ability to forecast AGI's arrival becomes more accurate as we get closer to achieving it, similar to better estimating hiking time as you near your destination. However, this assumption faces major challenges since AI progress could hit unexpected roadblocks, breakthroughs might remain secret, or sudden "intelligence explosions" could accelerate AGI development unpredictably, making reliable predictions nearly impossible.