The first flying taxis could start operating in 2026 — will this new form of transport actually take off?

Two companies are beating the hell out of their batteries in the race to launch flying taxis in Dubai this year, but experts say we're still a decade away from hailing an airborne ride. Despite ambitious promises from Joby Aviation and Archer to debut air taxi services in the UAE, the reality is far more grounded in technical complexity and regulatory red tape.

The electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft, or eVTOLs, promise to be quieter and cleaner than helicopters, resembling oversized drones more than traditional aircraft. But certification requires around 1,000 hours of test flights overseen by regulators, and even the most advanced developers have logged only a few hundred hours across multiple aircraft designs.

"There's not enough time on this planet for them to do it in a year," said Sergio Cecutta, founder of SMG Consulting, which covers the advanced air mobility sector. He estimates certification won't happen until 2027 at the earliest for leading companies.

Technical challenges loom large beyond just paperwork. The powerful downwash from multiple rotors can damage infrastructure and send people flying, while battery replacement costs alone could destroy the economics of the entire enterprise.