Asteroid 2024 YR4's collision with the moon could create a flash visible from Earth, study finds

A building-sized asteroid could slam into the moon in 2032, creating a flash as bright as Venus that would shine for up to five minutes across Earth's night sky. The 200-foot-wide space rock known as 2024 YR4 briefly terrified astronomers earlier this year when calculations showed it had a 3.1% chance of hitting Earth — the highest probability ever recorded for an asteroid that size.

Now ruled safe from striking our planet, scientists have turned their attention to modeling what would happen if it hits the moon instead. Their simulations predict the impact would occur near the moon's Tycho crater, visible to observers in East Asia, Oceania, Hawaii and western North America.

The collision would unleash spectacular fireworks: thousands of secondary flashes as lunar rocks rain back down, followed by extreme meteor storms lasting weeks as 220 million pounds of debris hurtle toward Earth. "If this scenario plays out, it will be a milestone for planetary science, turning the Earth-Moon system into a grand stage," researcher Yixuan Wu told Live Science.