Ai2's Tim Dettmers: AGI is a fantasy

Allen Institute researcher Tim Dettmers argues that artificial general intelligence is fundamentally impossible due to hardware limitations, predicting only one to two years of GPU scaling remain before physical constraints halt progress. GPU performance per cost peaked around 2018, with recent gains from precision improvements like BF16 and FP8 rapidly exhausting their potential. Dettmers contends that pursuing AGI diverts resources from economically productive AI applications, advocating for China's more pragmatic approach of focusing on useful current technologies.